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By Phil
Several arguments involving late bidding recur regularly
on the eBay message forums. I'll try to address some
of them here. If you want to get into a dicussion
on the pros and cons of late bidding, by all means
feel free. However, you might want to read this list
first, to see if your argument has already been tried.
I apologize in advance for the length
of this. I've tried to make it as readable as possible.
It's an unfortunate fact of life that a mistaken notion
can be stated in few words, but it usually requires
a lot of exposition to show why it's mistaken.
Formatting
note: After I reread this yet again, it occurred to
me that there's the potential for confusion between
the actors. (He did this, he did that -- which he
is which?). Therefore this change: I've made all the
snipers female. Hopefully, this will help you to tell
people apart.
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Myth
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Reality
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| Sniping
isn't found in a real auction, where bidding
continues until everybody's had all the chances they
want to bid. If a late bid comes in, the auction should
be extended by 5 minutes to give the previous bidder
a chance to counter-bid. (Some other online auctions
refer to this as "popcorn bidding".) |
What
is a real auction? Does a real auction
run 24 x 7 x 365 and cater to millions of people around
the world? Do real auctions accept bids for multiple
days?
Usually,
when somebody says "real auction", they really mean
a traditional live auction, sometimes called an "outcry"
auction, where each item sale ends in "Going once,
going twice, gone!" It's certainly the kind of auction
that most people have in mind.
However,
there are a lot of auction formats that are different
than "Going, going, gone!" Some are:
- Sealed
bid -- All bids are submitted privately. Nobody
knows what anybody else has bid. All bids must be
in by a certain time. Bids are then opened and compared,
and the high bid wins.
- Silent
Auction -- Often found in an art fair. Bids are
written, one after the other, on a sheet of paper
next to the item. The auction ends at a certain
time, and the highest bid on the paper wins.
- "Television"
auction -- Often found as a public television fundraiser.
Bids are taken on an item for a fairly short time.
High bid when the time runs out wins.
Obviously,
eBay is closer to these auctions than it is to the
outcry format. Timed auctions are better suited for
the 24 x 7 x 365 environment of the world-wide Internet.
(In fact, ebay uses a slightly modified version of
the Vickery second sealed-price auction. More
info can be found at this Wikipedia
article.)
Here
are some problems that occur in an automatic-extension
environment:
- Everyone
is now forced to be at his machine at the end of
the auction, which is not required now if bidders
have entered a maximum bid. This penalizes people
who cannot be at their machines due to other responsibilities,
such as work or sleep. To eliminate sniping, you've
made everybody into snipers.
- An
implicit assumption with changing to the auto-extend
format is that the proponent thinks everybody's
behaviour will remain the same, except that sniping
will cease being a factor. This is hopelessly optimistic.
More likely, bidders will start out bidding lower
and spend all their time bidding incrementally,
hoping to outlast the other guys. It's highly unlikely
that everybody will bid their max at any time. Whether
or not this ends up in an increased closing price
for the seller is speculation at best.
- Auction
endings will tend to migrate into times when the
majority of people will be on line - starting about
7:00pm EST and ending about 11:00pm PST. This migration
of auction times will dramatically increase the
peak load on ebay's servers and communications lines,
increasing the possibilities of outages. Further
increasing the traffic would be all the people who
were not sniping before but now have to, constantly
reloading their auction pages. Also, this further
penalizes people outside of the U.S. time zones.
- If
extensions can be added indefinitely, this could
lead to an all-night bidding session. (I participated
in an auto-extend auction on surplusauction.com
that lasted at least 4 hours past the nominal end
time before everybody gave up.) Given that eBay
is world-wide, this again is manifestly unfair to
people unable to be at their machines due to other
obligations, such as sleep or work.
If
extensions are NOT added indefinitely, then sniping
is still possible (but more complex). You snipe
in a bid that is just enough to take the lead,
just prior to the beginning of the extension window.
You then monitor the auction during the extension
period, and snipe in another bid just prior to
the end of the auction.
There
are auction sites now that have auto-extend as an option
(Yahoo Auctions, for one). Sampling the auctions show
that the option is seldom used. Therefore the evidence
sugests that extensions won't help, otherwise they would
be used more often.
Another
difference between the eBay and outcry formats is
that outcry auctions are over in a matter of seconds
to minutes. eBay auctions take three to ten days.
The prospective bidder has ample time to research
the item and consider his bid.
In
order to allow bidders to not be present at the end
of the auction (which could occur when the bidder
would normally be asleep or away from his computer),
the eBay designers put in the proxy bidding system.
For
more in-depth on the problems with an auto-extend
auction, take a look at .this
page.
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| Sniping
software and sniping sites are unfair. It pits man against
machine, and the man is guaranteed to lose. |
All
the sniping software does is put in a bid at the end
of the auction. The bid still has to beat everybody
else who bids. Sniping software can only bid as high
as you tell it to bid. If your bid is going to get beat,
having the bid put in by machine is no different than
having the bid put in by hand. And, you can beat the
machine the same way you beat the human sniper - bid
your top-dollar max. |
| "Blind"
ending times will eliminate sniping. (A blind ending
time is a time that's only known to with a few minutes.
30 or 60 minutes have been suggested. The auction could
end at any moment within that window.) |
Won't
help. In fact, it will probably make things worse. Here's
how.
Imagine
an auction with a 30 minute blind period starting
at 4:30. A sniper bids at exactly 4:29:55. The auction
could end anywhere between 4:30 and 5:00. The other
bidder is now forced to be at his machine as well,
in order to respond to the bid. And, he'd have to
be there for a half hour, refreshing his browser every
few seconds. If a higher bid comes in, he'd have to
enter a response bid as fast as possible, because
he doesn't know how much longer the auction has to
run.
Once
again, you've created another sniper: the person who
got outbid. Worse, because of the ending time uncertainty,
the bidder's stress would be significantly worse than
it is now. Certainly you have not solved the
original problem, which was to make sniping irrelevant.
In fact, this idea has pretty much the same set of
problems that you get with auto-extend auctions.
On
this topic, eBay member mttlg writes:
Without
an end time, how do I know which of two similar items
to try bidding on first? With an end time, I know
exactly when the auction ends, so I only need to watch
one auction of a specific item at a time. Since I
don't care if I get outbid, I can always move on to
the next available item. Without an end time, things
would be much more confusing. Let's say two similar
items end on the same day with the same opening bid
and no reserve, but the time is unknown. I'll pick
one and place a bid. The other auction ends without
bids, but there are other people who wanted to bid
on it, so they instead bid on the same item I bid
on. One seller makes a killing, another has no sale.
One bidder pays a lot for the item, the others kick
themselves for not bidding on the other item. The
unsold item could get relisted, but the demand could
disappear by the time the relisted auction ends. A
deal could be made outside of eBay, but eBay frowns
on that (because they don't get a cut). Buyers lose,
sellers lose, eBay loses.
eBay's
current system does not require the bidder to be present.
All he has to do is to enter an appropriate proxy
bid one time, whenever he chooses to bid.
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| Snipers
always win. |
Hardly.
A sniper only wins when her bid is the highest. If the
other bidders are properly using the proxy bidding system,
then it's her bid against the other bidder's proxy bid.
Snipers often lose under these circumstances.
Now,
if the other bidder is not properly proxy bidding,
then he's in a very poor position and will likely
lose the auction to a last-second bid.
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| Snipers
have some sneaky way of determining other bidders maximum
proxy bid, and bidding just above it to win. That's
why the late bid beat me by only $1. |
No.
That's the eBay proxy bidding system, combined with
the automatic increment. The winner of an auction will
never pay more than one increment higher than the second-highest
bidder. The winning bidder could have entered a bid
$100 higher than the second-highest bidder. |
| Snipers
spend their lives staring at the screen. |
Ignoring
sniping software and sniping services, the snipers needs
to be in front of her computer for 15 minutes max. Just
long enough to log on, place the snipe, confirm the
win, email the seller, and log off. |
| Snipers
take advantage of unsuspecting bidders. |
If
a swimmer dives into a pond without bothering to learn
beforehand how deep the water is, whose fault is it
if he smashes his head against a rock?
When
a new member arrives on eBay, if he hears the word
"auction" and then assumes that things are going to
be the way he thinks an auction works (probably based
on the outcry format), he's set himself up for a rude
shock. It's the responsibility of the new member to
learn about the environment before he jumps in. That
doesn't mean that he has to learn how to snipe. There
are no secrets here, but there are subtleties. And
there's a huge user population, many of which already
understand those subtleties. If nothing else, the
new eBay member should realize that he is confronted
with a learning curve before he completely understands
what's going on. If he doesn't take the time to learn
about his new environment, or if he refuses to learn,
then he shouldn't be surprised when he bangs into
an unforseen rock.
While
it isn't the obligation of the existing members to
teach a new member, many will gladly give advice and
help. And the eBay documentation is pretty good.
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| Snipers
take control of the price of the auction away from the
sellers. |
Well
actually, the whole idea of an auction that the seller
does not control the price. In an auction, the price
is directly set by the marketplace, as opposed to the
more traditional method of the seller setting a price
and seeing how many he sells, then adjusting the price.
Snipers have no impact on that dynamic.
If
a seller needs to "control" the price, he can use
a reserve or set an appropriate opening price.
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| Sniping
is anti-competitive. It keeps the other bidders from
entering a higher bid. |
Actually
it's the clock that keeps the other bidder from raising
his bid.
The
people who use this argument are thinking in terms
of the outcry form described above. They think that
when they bid, they need to enter just enough to become
high bidder. When you bid like that, you won't have
time to respond to a bid that comes three seconds
before the end of the auction. Thus, you can't compete
with the sniper.
The
proxy bidding system eliminates this problem. By entering
the maximum you are willing to pay into the proxy
system, you let the eBay computer bid for you. It's
much faster than any sniper.
So,
the logic of this objection fails. The sniper isn't
competing against the other bidder; she's competing
against the proxy. If the other bidder didn't enter
his maximum bid into the proxy, then he's deliberately
crippled himself.
Another
way of looking at this objection is to compare it
to a sports game. In basketball, it's a common tactic
for a team that's one point behind to hang onto the
ball in order to take the last shot. Hopefully, they
will take the lead with so little time left that the
other team doesn't get a chance to make a return shot.
It's obviously silly to call this tactic 'anti-competitive'.
So,
if eBay is a competition, why should the sniper do
anything other than what she's doing? Should a bidder
deliberately bid to lose an auction? Why should
the sniper improve everybody else's odds of winning,
at the expence of her own chance? Sounds like the
complainer is the one being anti-competitive to me.
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| The
last bidder wins. That's why snipers bid so late, so
they can have the last bid. |
No,
the last bidder does not win. The highest bid entered
by the end wins. eBay's proxy bidding system guarantees
it. All you have to do is enter a higher bid than anybody
else, at any time during the auction.
If
the sniper wins, it was because her bid was higher
than everybody else's bid.
Remember,
the sniper doesn't give anybody else a chance to respond
to her bid. This means the sniper doesn't have a chance
to respond to her own bid, if it happens to
be too low.
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| Snipers
are chicken. They are afraid to show themselves to other
bidders. |
There
are lots of reasons for not showing your interest too
early. Many are listed in the "Why Snipe" section here.
If
you're playing poker, do you lay your cards down on
the table so everybody else can see them? No? Are
you chicken?
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| Bidders
should give warning of their interest by only being
allowed to bid at the auction's end if they've entered
an earlier bid. After all, you aren't allowed to jump
into a race just before the finish line and then cross
ahead of everybody who's been running since the beginning.
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This
wouldn't make any difference. If you've been around
eBay auctions for any length of time, you've seen that
often people will enter an early low bid and then go
away as bidding continues and the price gets higher.
Have they dropped out? You can't tell by looking. And
if they do come back in the last 6 seconds, snipe the
auction and win, would you feel any better?
As
far as the "race" scenario goes, well, bad analogies
lead to bad analysis. An eBay auction is nothing like
a race, so trying to make comparisons using the logic
of a race is doomed to failure.
On
this topic, eBay member 32bituser writes:
Anyway,
eBay does not place any requirements on bidders other
than to place a bid during the auction (and pay for
it if you win). That's it. Nothing else. You are not
required to bid your max, you are not required to
bid by a certain point in the auction. All you are
required to do (if you wish to be considered a participant)
is to place a valid bid sometime before the auction
ends. There is no moral or social component (good
or bad) to what you bid or when you bid it.
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| Snipers
ruin the enjoyment of the auction experience. |
Uh,
exactly why are you here? Snipers, generally speaking,
are here to obtain items they need or want. Enjoyment
is secondary.
Further,
if you're bidding for the enjoyment of the experience,
well snipers are doing nothing to prevent you from
bidding. So bid away and enjoy yourself!
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| Snipers
enter enormously high bids in order to win. (This is
sometimes referred to as a "nuclear snipe".) |
Not
likely. If two snipers went for the same item with the
same tactic, somebody would wind up paying an enormous
sum. This tactic has been suggested as a joke. It's
been seen a couple of times but not often, certainly
not enought to indicate that it's a common practice.
Even
so, the dynamics of an auction are that the person
who wants it most pays the most. Somebody who enters
a ludicrous bid to win is going to end up paying the
most. If you entered your maximum bid into the proxy
against somebody using this technique, then she's
going to pay more than you. Doesn't matter if she
snipes it or not.
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| Sniping
costs the seller money, which he would have gotten if
bidding had continued by extending the auction. |
It's
easy to claim this, but hard to back it up. (Does anybody
else see a conflict between this claim and the one just
above this?)
It's
just as easy to claim that what costs the sellers
money are bidders who don't understand or use the
proxy system effectively. To be sure, a sniper gets
the seller more money simply because it's another
higher bid, where it's only speculation that an automatic
extension would result in more money.
Remember
- in ebay, it's not the winner who sets the final
price. Rather, since the winner always wins by one
increment over the second-highest bidder, it's
the second highest bidder that set the winning price.
If the second-highest bidder tried to get the item
by lowballing, then the winning price will be low.
This philosophy is often summarized thus: Lowballers
bid for a bargain and hope for a win; snipers bid
for a win and hope for a bargain.
It's
a fact that lowball bidders cost the seller money.
The fix for that is partially in the seller's hands
-- the seller can enter an appropriate minimum bid,
or use a reserve. If the seller counts on an auction
frenzy to drive the bid up to a reasonable amount,
the seller runs the risk of being disappointed.
In
auction sites where automatic bidding extension is
available (Yahoo Auctions for one, where it's a seller's
option), it's seldom used. If the sellers there thought
they would get more money, they'd use it more often.
And,
eBay says that the reason they don't use automatically
extended auctions is so sellers know for sure when
their auctions are going to end.
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| Snipers
are notorious for winning auctions and not paying. They
must be sniping for the pure thrill of it. |
The
evidence is against this. Sellers generally say that
snipers are the best customers they have on eBay. |
| Snipers
do not really want the item anyway. They do it just
for the sport of beating someone else, or because they
have a vendetta against somebody. Snipers are vultures.
|
The
evidence is against this too. No doubt, there are isolated
cases where somebody carrying a grudge has sniped an
item away from somebody else, but this is not typical.
If anything, this myth can best be characterized as
an unfair generalization.
There
is one circumstance where it could appear that somebody
is out to get you. If you are concentrating on a particular
narrow area, you could easily run into a sniper, perhaps
a dealer, concentrating in the same area. If the other
bidder has a bigger pocketbook than you do, she could
easily snipe you on a number of items you were bidding
on. In that case, it might seem that she was actively
pursuing you, where it was just a coincidence.
I've
actually been in that situation. I was aggressively
purchasing multiples of the same item, for a project
I am working on. I was persistently outbidding the
same two or three people. I'm sure they thought I
was out to get them.
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|
Snipers are inconsiderate. They are violating the community
spirit. |
This
is an amazingly flexible argument, since "community
spirit" can mean pretty much anything.
From
where I sit, the community spirit of ebay is to bid
on auctions and win them if I can. That's what auctions
are all about.
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| Nobody
really knows their maximum, so it's specious to say
people should enter their absolute maximum bid into
the proxy system. |
There
are multiple problems with this claim.
- Everybody
has some idea of their maximum. Would you
bid $10,000 for a jar of peanuts? If not, you've
already got some limits in mind.
- In
the eBay world, you've got days to figure
your maximum bid. You have all the research facilities
of the Internet available to you. If you don't know
what your maximum is when you first find an item,
you've certainly got time to figure it out.
- You're
claiming that an auto-extended close time will help
your chances in the auction, because you didn't
know you could bid that high. Well, if you can't
figure your maximum bid out for the 3, 5, 7, or
10 days the auction is running already, what makes
you think that an extra 10 minutes will make any
difference?
- As
somebody on the eBay boards pointed out, if you
don't know what you're willing to pay for something,
you're operating at a pretty severe disadvantage
both in eBay and in the real world.
- Finally,
obviously somebody must know what their maximum
is: the sniper. A last-second bidder doesn't have
time to go back and increase her bid, so she has
to bid her maximum.
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| I
had high bid on that item for days. It was mine.
That #$%&! sniper stole it from me at the last second.
|
Sorry,
but you don't have "dibs". No such thing on eBay. It
wasn't yours. It belonged to the seller. A high bid
does not transfer ownership, unless it the high bid
when the auction is over. |
| You
need a fast Internet connection to snipe. Snipers have
fast lines, therefore they have an advantage. |
You
can enter a late bid quite well on a 28.8 modem, especially
if you turn off graphics. The amount of data involved
is actually quite small. |
| Snipers
cheat. |
Not
possible. eBay's computer systems enforce the rules,
as defined by eBay. Hey, it's their site! The rules
allow a bid by anybody, up to the last second. Therefore,
a last second bid can not be cheating, by definition.
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| Snipers
are violating the Golden Rule. |
Which
one? "Do unto others as you would have them do unto
you," or "He who has the gold makes the rules"??
All
kidding aside, snipers do indeed follow the Golden
Rule. Snipers are perfectly willing to go head to
head with anybody. We just don't feel any obligation
to restrict our bidding technique because somebody
else wasn't willing to use the proxy system properly.
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| Snipers
are selfish. |
The
evidence suggests otherwise. Snipers are by and large
always willing to help a new bidder figure out the eBay
bidding environment, and to coach them in tactics (including
how to snipe). The fact that this document exists at
all indicates that selfishness is not the driving impulse.
If the sniper was being selfish, she would be keeping
the secret of sniping to herself.
Ask
yourself how many of the anti-sniping campaigners
are helping people figure out how to use eBay better.
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| Sniping
isn't fair. |
This
is a hard objection to quantify, so it's hard to defend
against. What do you mean by "fair" ??
Certainly
it's fair in that the time limit and the bidding rules
are known by all. The incremental bidder is complaining
because he did not use all the features of the system
available to him. It's not fair for all the other
bidders to cripple themselves down to the level of
the poor guy who couldn't use the site, is it?
Suppose
I decide to let my pet chicken place my bids for me.
I will definitely be at a disadvantage to those who
don't use chickens, right? Yes. Is that fair? According
to this claim, no. Should we force everyone
else to change the way they bid so that I, who let
my pet chicken do my bidding, will have no disadvantage?
According to this claim, we should. If you pick a
strategy that puts you at a disadvantage, don't blame
anyone but yourself for it, fair or not.
On
this topic, eBay member mttlg writes:
Does
having a strategy give me an advantage over incompetent
bidders on eBay? Yes. Does having an engineering degree
give me an advantage over a mentally handicapped high
school dropout in the job market? Of course. In both
cases, I earned the advantage by adapting to the system
involved and doing what I could to make the system
work for me. Is it fair? That's a difficult question
to answer. Is it fair that I was born into a good
family, raised by intelligent and supportive parents,
and given the opportunity to receive a good education
while millions of children starve in this world? Fair
or not, you can't fault a person for making the most
of themselves and their opportunities in a way that
did not intentionally cause harm to others. This is
why sniping isn't wrong - snipers play by the same
rules as everyone else, rules that give everyone equal
opportunity to place bids until the clearly defined
end of auction.
A
cynical response is to say that the person making
the "It isn't fair" claim would only think it's fair
if he got the last bid, instead of the sniper.
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